The math behind when teasers actually offer positive expected value
A teaser is a parlay where you can adjust point spreads in your favor in exchange for reduced odds. All legs must win.
Payout: 2-team, 6-point teaser typically pays -110 to -120
Teasers become profitable when you cross key numbers (3 and 7) on both legs. Crossing key numbers significantly increases win probability, often by more than the reduced payout suggests.
For a standard 2-team, 6-point teaser at -110:
Break-even requires:
The question: Can crossing key numbers push each leg above 72.4%?
| Original Line | Teased To | Keys Crossed | Measured Win % (1999–2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 to -8.5 | -1.5 to -2.5 | 7 and 3 | 72.8% (493 games) |
| -2.5 to -3 | +3 to +3.5 | 3 (both sides) | 62.8% (1,684 games) |
| -4.5 to -5 | +1 to +1.5 | 3 only | 68.2% (434 games) |
| -10 | -4 | 7 only | 64.8% (213 games) |
Named after gambling author Stanford Wong, this strategy identifies +EV teaser opportunities:
| Type | Points | 2-Team Odds | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 6 | -110 to -120 | Best value |
| 6.5-point | 6.5 | -120 to -130 | Marginal |
| 7-point | 7 | -130 to -140 | Avoid |
| Sweetheart/Monster | 10-13 | Varies | Avoid |
You can also tease totals, but they're generally less valuable:
Totals don't have the same "key number" structure as spreads. Points cluster around 41, 44, 47, 51 but not as dramatically as 3 and 7 for margins.
Crossing through 40-43 and 48-51 ranges can add value, but it's harder to identify clear +EV spots.
Adding more legs to teasers changes the math:
| Legs | Typical Odds | Required Win %/Leg | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | -110 | 72.4% | Best value |
| 3 | +150 to +180 | 71–74% (exact math at +150 to +180) | Marginal |
| 4+ | Varies | 72.3% at +265 (exact math) | Generally -EV |
The trap: More legs look appealing because of better odds, but the math rarely works in your favor unless all legs cross key numbers perfectly.
-110 vs -120 matters significantly over time
Not every week has good teaser opportunities
Some books count ties as losses on teasers - avoid these
It's okay to skip a week if only one good leg exists
Document which teasers you take and why
The Wong rules above are usually quoted with vague win percentages. The bundled nflverse game log (7,276 completed games, 1999–2025) lets us score the legs exactly: take every game whose closing spread fits the rule, tease it 6 points, and check whether the final margin beat the teased number.
| Teaser leg | Games | Leg won | Beats break-even at… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite −7.5 to −8.5, teased to −1.5/−2.5 | 493 | 72.8% | −110 only (72.4%) |
| Underdog +1.5 to +2.5, teased to +7.5/+8.5 | 904 | 75.2% | −110 and −120; ties −130 |
| Favorite −2.5 to −3, teased to +3.5/+3 | 1,684 | 62.8% | Never |
| Favorite −4.5 to −5, teased to +1.5/+1 | 434 | 68.2% | Never |
| Favorite −10 exactly, teased to −4 | 213 | 64.8% | Never |
| Underdog +7 to +8, teased to +13/+14 | 882 | 62.5% | Never |
Data: nflverse games.csv bundled with this site (7,276 completed games, 1999–2025), computed by the author. A leg “wins” when the actual margin beats the teased line; pushes on teased lines are counted as non-wins here, a conservative scoring.
The measured gap between real Wong legs (72.8% and 75.2%) and everything else (62–68%) is the entire strategy. Legs that do not cross both 3 and 7 fall 5–10 points short of any break-even — there is no price at which they parlay profitably.
A two-team teaser needs both legs, so the per-leg requirement is the square root of the ticket's break-even. Exact formula math for the prices you will actually see:
| 2-team price | Ticket break-even | Per-leg requirement | Wong favs (72.8%) clear it? | Wong dogs (75.2%)? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −110 | 52.38% | 72.4% | Barely | Yes |
| −120 | 54.55% | 73.9% | No | Yes |
| −130 | 56.52% | 75.2% | No | Break-even |
| −135 | 57.45% | 75.8% | No | No |
Exact formula math: per-leg = √(break-even); break-even = |odds|/(|odds|+100).
This is the honest state of the Wong teaser in 2026: the historical leg rates only clear the bar at prices most books no longer offer. At the −120 to −135 now standard, dog legs are roughly break-even and favorite legs are underwater. The strategy did not stop working because the football changed — margins still pile up on 3 through 7 (38.6% of all games land there) — it stopped working because books repriced it.
Keep reading: key numbers for the margin table that powers all of this, and the key-numbers explainer for the full distribution chart.
Nothing here is betting advice, and no number on this page predicts any single game. Sports betting is legal only in some jurisdictions and only for adults (21+ in most U.S. states). If betting stops being entertainment, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Read our full disclaimer.
-7.5, -8, -8.5 → teased to -1.5, -2, -2.5
+1.5, +2, +2.5 → teased to +7.5, +8, +8.5